India's electric car proposal a major blow to oil companies
A customers look at a Tesla Inc. Model S 90D electric vehicle at the company's showroom in Hanam, Gyeonggi Province, South Korea, on Wednesday, March 15, 2017. Tesla produced almost 84,000 vehicles in 2016 and plans to make half a million in 2018, then 1 million in 2020. Photographer: SeongJoon Cho/BloombergSeongJoon Cho/Bloomberg
Los Angeles, CA. April 10, 2017 -- Ford reveals industry's first pursuit-rated hybrid police car in New York and Los Angeles; all-new Police Responder Hybrid Sedan expected to save customers thousands in fuel costs. Ford investing $4.5 billion and introducing 13 new electric vehicles globally in the next five years, including F-150 Hybrid, Mustang Hybrid, Transit Custom plug-in hybrid, autonomous vehicle hybrid and fully electric small SUV with estimated range of at least 300 miles. Pictured: Los Angeles Police Department Chief Charlie Beck, Los Angeles, CA.
Ford
The all-electric Chevy Bolt EV won the 2017 North American Car of the Year Award and was Motor Trend magazine's Car of the Year.Chevrolet
A member of the media uses the touchscreen of a Tesla Inc. Model S 90D electric vehicle at the company's showroom in Hanam, Gyeonggi Province, South Korea, on Wednesday, March 15, 2017. Tesla produced almost 84,000 vehicles in 2016 and plans to make half a million in 2018, then 1 million in 2020. Photographer: SeongJoon Cho/BloombergSeongJoon Cho/Bloomberg
BMW i3 - 7,625
People often dismiss the i3 as a boring, ugly commuter car made by BMW as an attempt to show off its latest tech. While some of that may be true, its electric powertrain and rear-wheel-drive layout makes it a joy to drive around town. That didnt convince buyers though, as only around 7000 i3s made it onto the streets in 2016.
BMW
This Sept. 20, 2016, photo provided by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety shows a 2017 BMW i3 before crash safety testing. The car earned good ratings in four out of five tests, but fell short of getting the highest safety rating in the newest crash tests administered by the insurance industry. (Matt Daly/Insurance Institute for Highway Safety via AP)Matt Daly/HONS
FILE - In this Jan. 9, 2017, file photo, the GAC Motors EnSpirit, an electronic hybrid conceptual car, is displayed at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit. The EnSpirit concept is a small four-door SUV with a retractable cloth roof. Inside are light wood accents and a long center stack that features a little bonsai tree in the rear. The EnSpirit is a plug-in hybrid, and GAC says it can go around 60 miles in electric mode before the small gas engine kicks in. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya, File)Paul Sancya/STF
An electric vehicle charging station is ready for the next car in the parking lot at the Hawaii State Legislature. Cathy Bussewitz/STF
The Mercedes B200e electric vehicle is displayed at the 2017 North American International Auto Show in Detroit, Michigan, January 10, 2017. / AFP / Geoff Robins (Photo credit should read GEOFF ROBINS/AFP/Getty Images)
GEOFF ROBINS/AFP/Getty Images
Volkswagen introduced its I.D. Buzz concept vehicle, an all-electric "microbus for the future," at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit, Jan. 8, 2017.
Volkswagen
The second-generation 2017 Chevrolet Volt is a five-passenger plug-in hybrid hatchback that runs full-time on an electric motor, but has a 1.5-liter gasoline engine that's used to extend its range. The engine doesn't drive the car -- it recharges the lithium-ion battery to keep the car going.General Motors Co.
Faraday Future's FF 91 electric car is unveiled during a news conference at CES International on Tuesday, Jan. 3, 2017, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)Jae C. Hong/STF
Faraday Future's FF91 electric car is unveiled during a news conference at CES International Tuesday, Jan. 3, 2017, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)Jae C. Hong/STF
In this Nov. 4, 2016, photo, a Chevrolet Bolt EV battery pack is removed for testing after undergoing charging and discharging cycles at General Motors Warren Technical Center's Advanced Energy Center in Warren, Mich. The Bolt is the first electric car to get more than 200 miles per charge and fit most buyers' budgets. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)Duane Burleson/FRE
FILE - This undated file photo shows Tesla Motors charging stations neat Truckee, Calif. Electric car maker Tesla Motors says it will end free use of its worldwide charging station network. The company says cars ordered after Jan. 1, 2017 will get roughly 1,000 miles worth of credits at the supercharging stations. After credits are used, owners will have to pay fees. Cars ordered or sold on or before Jan. 1 would still get free charging. (Margaret Moran/Sierra Sun via AP, File)Margaret Moran/MBR
This undated photo provided by Electra Meccanica Vehicles Corp. shows the Solo, a one-seater made by the Vancouver, Canada-based company. The three-wheeled electric car could soon go on sale in the U.S. and Canada. (Electra Meccanica Vehicles Corp. via AP)HONS
Electric cars.
Associated Press
Demand for oil is flattening in North America, Europe and China, so most oil companies are expecting growth to come from poor people in poor countries burning more gasoline and diesel.
India, home to more than 1.2 billion people, holds the most promise, according to OPEC projections. India's oil consumption is expected to rise 7 percent to 8 percent this year, outpacing China's demand growth for the third consecutive year, according to Platts Analytics, an energy data firm.
Past performance, though, will not be indicative of future results if Indian officials get their way. And that could spell big trouble for big oil.
"The idea is that by 2030, not a single petrol or diesel car should be sold in the country," India's coal and mines minister Piyush Goyal told the Confederation of Indian Industry Annual Session 2017 in New Delhi, according to The International Business Times.
"We are going to introduce electric vehicles in a very big way," he added.
Goyal said the government is ready to subsidize the development and sale of electric cars and to help Indian companies install electric charging infrastructure. The government is already investing heavily in new electric power generation, from both coal and renewable sources, and Indian energy companies are exploring greater use of natural gas.
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Before dismissing the government's push toward electric transportation, spend a few weeks in one of India's major cities. India's air pollution is now worse than China's, and Indians are demanding the government do something about it.
When I visited India last year, I wrote about choking on the smog and the horrible traffic jams. I also saw more electric and natural gas vehicles in New Delhi than I've seen anywhere else in the world. This transition away from liquid-fueled cars is already underway.
Indians themselves want to stop burning oil so their children can breathe easier, and this is what the government is responding too. This is a case of voters demanding change, not the government trying to enforce it.
China is also moving quickly to electric vehicles for the same reason. After years of allowing people to pollute freely in the name of economic development, the government is listening to urban Chinese who are complaining about their children growing up with asthma.
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Electric cars are becoming cheaper and easier to use every year. The auto industry is responding with new models, and many experts say oil companies are underestimating how quickly people will adopt them.
Most oil company forecasts dismiss predictions of the demand for oil peaking anytime before 2040. Except for one: Royal Dutch Shell. CEO Ben van Beurden said it could happen in the late 2020s, and that's why he's investing in finding more natural gas as a fuel to generate electricity.
Some transformations take generations. Others can happen in a decade. What is becoming clear is that the oil industry's demand forecasts could be radically wrong, and investors and workers need to be cautious.
