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Downsides, upsides of 2015

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The year 2015 brought with it the usual mixture of good and bad news stories on the world scene. Some attracted widespread media attention, others less so. Here is a highly subjective selection of what can be called the downsides and upsides in international affairs.

The Downsides

The development that probably had the widest negative impact was the continuing fall in the price of crude oil. Begun in 2014, it became more accentuated in 2015. It has already had devastating consequences for countries such as Russia, Venezuela and Brazil. In Canada, it has resulted in economic decline and rising unemployment in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland-Labrador, and it has cast a pall over prospects for economic growth in Canada as a whole. Even in the United States, which has been less severely affected, it has led to closures and disinvestment in the shale oil sector. And things seem unlikely to get better any time soon. The recent decision of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to maintain production at current levels provides little cause for optimism.

In Europe, Ukraine sank into an ever deeper morass in 2015. Despite western economic sanctions and a faltering economy, Russia gave no signs of any willingness to release its grip on the Crimean Peninsula and it continued to supply economic and military assistance to separatists operating in eastern Ukraine. Despite a decline in the tempo of military operations in that region, Ukraine remains a badly fractured country. But beyond that, it is also headed toward economic depression. The Ukrainian government, redolent with corruption and cronyism, has proved incapable of implementing the reforms necessary to salvage the economy. Ukrainian begging bowls are becoming an ever more common feature in western capitals and in the hallways of the International Monetary Fund.

Russian military adventurism was not confined to Ukraine. During the summer, Russia dispatched both ground troops and military aircraft to Syria in a desperate attempt to save the Assad regime, its last remaining asset in the Middle East. Russian bombers have not only attacked Syrian opposition forces supported by the West, but have also killed large numbers of civilians. Their presence and activities in the region could well result in an accidental military confrontation with the United States and its allies. And on this front, it is anything but reassuring to note that Russia and NATO are needling each other with low-level military actions and provocative statements.

U.S. President Barrack Obama's proclaimed intent to "degrade and destroy" the Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria was certainly not realized in 2015. The air strikes mounted by the United States and its coalition partners have been successful in destroying some of the IS's economic assets, including oil fields and oil refineries. They have been partially successful in helping to recapture terrain controlled by IS but not in curbing the flow of new recruits to the IS banner; a report quoted by The Economist estimates that the number of foreign recruits has more than doubled since mid-2014, and that they emanate from no fewer than 86 countries. The IS may have been degraded, but it is certainly very far from being destroyed. In the meantime, the IS "brand" continued to spread, as evidenced by the recent terrorist attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, Calif.

In the Middle East more generally, the year 2015 was almost certainly the most chaotic in living memory. Insurgents and terrorists were on the march in Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria and Iraq. Political stability was being undermined in Lebanon and Jordan by vast influxes of Syrian and Iraqi refugees. And in Turkey, the government has resumed its armed attacks on Kurds. In the midst of all of this mayhem, most of the victims were innocent civilians, including the millions of refugees en route to Europe.

In Afghanistan, 14 years of military operations by western forces did not succeed in either defeating or destroying the Taliban and its allies. During the year just ended, the Taliban has proved itself a resurgent movement. It has survived not only the NATO campaign against it, but also the death of its iconic leader. Mullah Omar. The Taliban is now on the offensive in one Afghan province after another, and has inflicted serious casualties on the Afghan government's army and police forces. And to all of this there is no end in sight, barring a negotiated settlement, which looks improbable for the time being.

Finally, and far less prominent in the media, was what Prof. Sunil Ram calls the "Island Hopping War" in the South China Sea. This consists of a series of conflicts over islands and maritime boundaries. At stake are rich oil, gas and fishery resources. Most of these conflicts pit the People's Republic of China against an array of neighbouring countries, including Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan, Brunei and Indonesia. In 2015, there were a number of flare-ups in these conflicts involving coast guard and naval vessels. The broader danger they present is that most of China's adversaries are de facto allies of the United States, and the risks of a great power confrontation cannot be excluded.

In the realm of unfulfilled hopes and expectations, the greatest disappointment may well have been Pope Francis. In the early months of his pontificate, his actions and words suggested he was a liberal and compassionate man. This led many Catholics and non-Catholics to believe he would be a genuinely reforming pope, open to significant changes in Church doctrine. The reality is that he has made no fundamental changes in the Church's teaching on issues as varied as contraception, divorce, clerical celibacy, women priests, gay marriage and doctor-assisted suicide. On these and other issues, he has proved to be no more progressive than his predecessors. Pity.

The Upsides

All was not gloom and doom in 2015. There were indeed a number of successes to be celebrated.

Obama spearheaded two major diplomatic breakthroughs. On the one hand, the restoration of diplomatic relations with Cuba put an end to a logjam that had lasted for more than 50 years. Although there are still a number of obstacles to be overcome in the process or normalization of the relationship, a historic first step has been taken. On the other hand, the agreement concluded with Iran to limit its nuclear program was also of major significance. While the agreement is not perfect, it has been sufficient to calm fears about a potential nuclear arms race in the Middle East.

It was also a good year for Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany. She showed real qualities of leadership in dealing with the European Union's response to the economic and fiscal crisis in Greece. She was at least partially successful in negotiating with Russian President Vladimir Putin a cessation of the bloodshed in eastern Ukraine. Her finest moment came with her response to the Syrian refugee crisis; she gave Europe and the world a stellar lesson in political courage and compassion.

A wide variety of governmental and non-governmental organizations deserve credit for the way in which they dealt with the outbreak of Ebola in West Africa. While the disease had devastating effects in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea, many of the citizens of these countries now owe their lives to the efforts of doctors, nurses and scientists drawn from around the world.

Their courage and dedication in confronting a dangerous situation was exemplary. And the fact that the disease did not spread further afield is a tribute to the work of the World Health Organization, the International Committee of the Red Cross, Doctors without Borders and many others.

Another good news story was a significant warming of relations between India and Japan. The two countries stand to derive considerable benefits from this. India will welcome increased economic assistance and Japanese investments in India's seriously underfunded infrastructure. Japan will gain better access to India's burgeoning consumer market and secure yet another partner in its endeavours to check Chinese adventurism in the East and South China seas. The solidifying of relations between two of Asia's largest democracies is also likely to be viewed with great favour in Washington.

Only time will tell whether Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Pakistan in late December is worth celebrating. The Indo-Pakistani relationship carries so much historical baggage, it routinely falls victim to the wishes of hardliners in both countries and has known so many false starts over the years that it would be hopelessly optimistic to invest great hopes in a two-hour meeting between Modi and his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif. But who knows? Something may come of it.

Finally, it is worth noting the slogan "Canada is back" on the world scene. The first two months of the new Liberal government have provided some encouraging indications this is not mere verbiage. The government rapidly unmuzzled Canadian diplomats serving abroad, thus allowing them to perform their necessary roles in the field of public diplomacy. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau held what were reportedly highly positive meetings with the leaders of Canada's two largest trading partners: the United States and China. Canada played a very useful and constructive role at the Paris summit on Climate Change. And the government acted boldly and decisively to welcome significant numbers of Syrian refugees to Canada. All of this was in marked contrast to the record of the Harper government. Whether the new government follows up with the much-needed financial reinvestment in Canada's diplomatic, defence and development assets remains to be seen. But Trudeau and his team are certainly off to a good start.

It is a rare pleasure to be able to end a column on a positive note and to wish you a very Happy New Year.

Louis A. Delvoie is a Fellow in the Centre for International and Defence Policy at Queen's University.

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