Despite taking place in a continent located over 3000 miles away, the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran has implications here in Africa. For Nigeria, the government has a difficult task to complete: to either remain neutral amidst a conflict that threatens to influence its own internal religious and economic issues, or choose a side in order to retain and advance its interests in those areas.
The Background
On the second day of the New Year, Iranian protesters attacked the Saudi Arabian embassy because of the beheading of Shiite cleric, Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr. Nimr was arrested last year for being associated with terrorist organisations and allegedly plotting against the Saudi government, which he openly condemned throughout his lifetime. However, critics in Iran remained unconvinced, and argue that his opinions of Saudi Arabia are the real reason he was executed. After the protest in Tehran, Iranian diplomats and other state representatives received a 48-hour ultimatum to vacate Saudi Arabia, and by January 3, diplomatic ties between both countries were cut.
Prior to the January 3rd decision to end diplomatic ties, at a press briefing in Paris in December, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister, Adel al-Jubeir announced that the Arab state was forming a coalition of Muslim countries to fight terrorism and the Islamic State. While the announcement was lauded by the international community, Saudi Arabia’s decision to exclude Iran and its two strong allies, Syria and Iraq, from the proposed coalition of 34-member countries across the Middle East, Asia, and Africa (including Nigeria), even though they also shared the enmity towards the terror group, raised a lot of concern.
Nigeria shares diplomatic, economic, and cultural relationships with both Iran and Saudi Arabia through a large Muslim population and oil production. On the other hand, Iran and Nigeria have maintained a strategic relationship for about 43 years. Another crucial link that ties Nigeria with the two grudging countries is the ongoing war against terror which affects Muslims in in every part of the world.
In light of what many have termed a ‘brewing cold war’ between the two countries, this conflict begs two crucial questions for Nigeria: First, what does this mean for Nigeria’s economy, which is inextricably linked to the price of oil? And second, what could this mean for Muslims in Nigeria?
Putting the conflict in context
Since 1979, foreign relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran have been unstable.
From the Iranian Revolution of 1979, and the Mecca Clashes of 1987, the two nations have been inextricably linked to one another’s sociopolitical climate. Both countries seemed to witness a brief period of respite in the late 1990s. However, In 2003 Saudi fears that Iran’s involvement in a nuclear energy programme was a plan to exert its rule over the Gulf region and increase its Shiite populations, particularly heightened tension between the countries.
In 2012, Syria received the support of Saudi Arabia in a bid to remove Iranian ally and controversial leader, President Bashar Al-Assad from office, over allegations of genocide. And Iran responded by accusing Saudi of aiding terrorism. Most historians and analysts suggest that oil and religion are the outstanding culprits of the shaky relationship between the two Middle Eastern giants. If it wasn’t clear before that Iran and Saudi Arabia refused to see eye to eye on any issue, their exclusion from Saudi Arabia’s Muslim coalition this past December was the tell.
For both religious and economic reasons, Africa has been dragged into the conflict. Some African countries with significant Muslim populations find themselves taking sides between the Saudi Arabia and Iran in the ongoing conflict. African governments and Muslims across the continent are declaring loyalty and forming alliances with both Middle Eastern countries, based on whether they have a Sunni or Shiite majority. Somalia, Djibouti and Sudan have recently declared allegiance to Saudi Arabia, underscoring that the war has escalated well beyond its geographical origins.
What does choosing sides mean for Muslim relations in Nigeria?
While Saudi Arabia was extending open arms to Nigeria to join forces per the formation of the coalition, Nigeria was in the midst of its own Sunni Shiite Crisis. Although majority of the nearly 50 percent of Muslims in Nigeria simply identify as just being “Muslim”, according to the 2012 Pew Research report, 95 percent are Sunni, while the remaining five percent are Shiite.
The minority Shiite group in Nigeria is led by Ibrahim Al-Zakzaky, who is also the leader of the Islamic Movement of Nigeria (IMN), which the Nigerian military claims is funded by the Iranian government. Zakzaky is an Islamic scholar, as well as an advocate for making Nigeria a totally Islamic state.
On December 12, Nigerian military troops accused Ibraheem Zakzaky, a Nigerian Shiite leader, of authorising members of his sect to assassinate Nigeria’s Chief of Staff, Tukur Buratai, following a confrontation between the two groups. The military later proceeded to Zakzaky’s residence to arrest him. The cleric was shot four times during the violent conflict, while over a hundred Shiites in the Gyelleus area lost their lives. The violent episode sparked outrage throughout the nation and illuminated the sensitivity of Sunni – Shiite relations in Nigeria.
Iran vocally condemned the Nigerian troops’ actions and demanded that Zakzaky be released. But he is still in custody.
Kamilu Sani Fage, a Nigerian political scientist from the University of Kano has criticised Iran’s demand of Zakzaky’s release as an interference in Nigeria’s internal affairs, and has suggested that the Nigerian Federal Government is trivialising the daring action which could account for a more fatal situation given another religious confrontation.
In addition, he projects that countries with both Shiite and Sunni communities will witness an increase in tension and possible violence if the current conflict in the Middle East is not handled diplomatically. The recent altercation between the Nigerian military and Shiite Muslims in Zaria serves as a hint to what the outcome could be in the case of a degeneration in the Saudi – Iran conflict.
In another event, over 200 Nigerian pilgrims were killed in a stampede while participating in the annual Hajj. Following the event, Prince Khaled al-faisal of Saudi Arabia suggested that Africans were responsible for the misfortune, causing a stir which led people to accuse him – and the kingdom – of racism. The Nigerian Muslim Rights Concern (MURIC) blamed Saudi security authorities for the fatal incident, and Nigerian Federal Government also had to insist on a proper investigation to be conducted in order to get the accurate number of casualties.
What could this mean for Nigeria’s economy?
Fluctuating oil prices throughout the globe characterised a major part of 2014 and 2015, and have also been pinpointed as one of the contributing factors to the Saudi Arabia – Iran conflict. An expert analysis on crude oil prices throughout the globe shows that Nigeria is battling with a failing currency and a steady drop in demand for crude which accounts for about 75 percent of its revenue generation, while OPEC has struggled to remain relevant since oil prices began to decline in August 2014. Saudi Arabia spearheaded a decision to keep oil production at its usual level, despite a negative impact on the price of oil; Iran and Nigeria are both hurt by low pricing.
Chatham House Research Associate, Ahmed Soliman, posits that the African countries who have aligned with Saudi Arabia have done so based on economic considerations that suit them, and cites the agricultural relationship between Saudi Arabia and Sudan as an example. Reportedly, 6,000 Sudanese troops are fighting on Saudi Arabia’s side in the ongoing Yemeni conflict, as the country signed an agreement with Saudi Arabia in November of 2015 to build three dams which would cost a total sum of $1.2 billion which Saudi will mostly fund.
Soliman’s advice to African countries is to not get caught up in the present diplomatic row between both Middle Eastern giants, as future relations rely heavily on hasty decisions today.
Where does Nigeria stand
Given Nigeria’s Sunni and Shiite population, and the fragile oil pricing situation, forming an alliance with either Saudi Arabia or Iran would not be wise on Nigeria’s part.
According to Nigeria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Geoffery Onyeama, although the rift between Saudi Arabia and Iran has caused an unfortunate situation in the global oil industry, Nigeria’s stance will continue to be striving for peace between both countries and the region.
While speaking to guests in Abuja last week during the visit of Saheed Koozechi, the Iranian Ambassador to Nigeria, Onyeama opined that it was the only way that both countries could contribute to winning the ongoing battle with dropping oil prices as well as continue to strengthen the ties between oil producing countries.
