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Politically, New Hampshire stands apart from the rest of New England. Here’s why.

The state’s geography and history, plus the evolution of the national GOP, have created a delicate balancing act for state-level Republicans.

Former New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu and current Governor Kelly Ayotte.AP Photos

Good morning. Today we explain why New Hampshire has diverged politically from the rest of New England — and assess whether it can maintain that independence in a second Trump era.

But first, here’s what else is going on:

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TODAY’S STARTING POINT

“Live free or die,” the New Hampshire state motto since 1945, suggests a measure of independence. The state’s politics have lived up to that reputation lately — at least compared to the rest of New England.

New Hampshire is the only state in the region where Republicans fully control state government. It’s the New England state where President Trump came closest to winning in all three elections he’s run in. And as New Hampshire’s neighbors broadly oppose Trump’s second-term agenda, state Republicans — under the new governor, Kelly Ayotte — are finding ways to align with him on issues like immigration and crime.

“ We stand apart from just about all of the rest of New England,” says Dante Scala, a professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire. Today’s newsletter explains the factors that make New Hampshire different, and why Trump’s second term may test them.

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A unique history

In some ways, the roots of New Hampshire’s political independence go back to when dinosaurs roamed the earth.

About 120 million years ago, volcanic activity birthed the state’s iconic mountains, while later glaciers left behind rocky terrain. By the time it became a state, New Hampshire’s short coastline and thin topsoil made it less conducive to farming and maritime activity than much of New England. But its rivers were ideal for textile factories and paper mills, fueling industrialization that helped foster an economically moderate, anti-regulatory sensibility that can still be seen in the state’s lack of sales taxes and permissive gun laws.

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“We’ve always from the start, maybe just due to our nature, had a different mindset,” says Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist and New Hampshire native. “We are a part of New England, but politically speaking, we’ve never been New England.”

Still, the divergence has widened in recent decades thanks to tectonic shifts of the political — rather than geographic — kind. In the 19th and 20th centuries, New Hampshire often backed Republicans for president, as did the other New England states. It last did so in 2000, more than a decade later than the rest of the region. But the national GOP has become more socially conservative since then, leaving many New Hampshire voters comfortable supporting Republicans for state offices while sending Democrats to Washington.

Despite its penchant for small government, New Hampshire hasn’t elected a Republican to Congress since 2014. But state-level Republicans are on a winning streak. They’ve controlled the governor’s mansion since 2017, which Ayotte won by nine points last year. The GOP has also held both houses of the legislature for most of the last three decades (though gerrymandering has helped).

“Again and again, New Hampshire voters show their willingness to consider state races and federal races quite differently,” said Scala, the UNH professor. “We’ve kind of settled in this purple zone.”

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Triangulating with Trump

That dynamic has pushed state Republicans into a delicate balancing act with their national counterparts.

The governor’s race was a case in point. In 2016, Ayotte lost her US Senate seat after criticizing Trump over the Access Hollywood tape, in which he bragged about grabbing women’s genitals. Ayotte avoided getting crosswise with Trump while campaigning for governor, endorsing him in the GOP primary. Yet she broke from other national Republicans by vowing to veto efforts to restrict abortion. (Despite her own track record.)

Since taking office, Ayotte has done a similar dance. She supports banning “sanctuary” immigration policies, echoing Republican criticism of cities like Boston. She’s also backed Trump’s deportation agenda and encouraged state law enforcement to cooperate with it. After a presidential campaign that revolved in part around the issue of crime, Ayotte signed a law making it harder for people to get released on bail. She even created a Commission on Government Efficiency to study potential spending cuts named after Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency.

Yet Ayotte has also marginalized some of her party’s more extreme ideas. She criticized state Republican lawmakers’ efforts to cut arts programs, won’t reappoint an education official who made controversial comments on gender and abortion, and prioritized bipartisan issues like housing.

What’s next?

The next year and a half may test that balancing act — and how much New Hampshire will continue to defy the rest of the region. If she seeks re-election, Ayotte and the entire state legislature will be on the ballot in 2026. In the meantime, they will confront federal spending cuts that could force painful choices to balance the state budget.

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Karen Hicks, a longtime Democratic organizer in the state, sees political peril for her Republican counterparts. She believes voters will hold them accountable for Trump’s tariffs and funding cuts, which are rocking state businesses and nonprofits. In 2018, the last midterm election under Trump, New Hampshire Democrats took back the state legislature. “The voters in this state are pretty savvy,” Hicks said.

Still, Democrats have their own challenges. Bartlett — the Republican strategist who worked for Ayotte when she was a senator — thinks Democrats will struggle to beat her, just as they failed to unseat Chris Sununu, the popular former Republican governor. Democrats will also have to defend the US Senate seat held by Jeanne Shaheen, who is retiring. If Sununu runs, he may test New Hampshire voters’ hesitancy to send a Republican to Washington.


🧩 1 Down: Not spoken | ☀️ 53º Sunshine returns


POINTS OF INTEREST

Karen Read and her defense team sat in Norfolk Superior Court in Dedham on Feb. 25.Greg Derr/The Patriot Ledger

Boston

  • Tough on crime: Josh Kraft, who is running against Boston Mayor Michelle Wu, criticized her after a fight broke out at a youth jobs fair that her office hosted.
  • Never mind: Developer Thomas O’Brien says he won’t run against Wu after all.
  • New approach: Prosecutors may change tack when they re-try Karen Read for allegedly killing her police officer boyfriend. Jury selection starts today.
  • ‘Egregious violations’: A Boston judge held an ICE agent in contempt for arresting a man in the middle of his trial last week.

Massachusetts and New England

Trump administration

  • Our bad: In a court filing, the government admitted to deporting a man with protected legal status to a Salvadoran prison, blaming an “administrative error.” The US says it can’t get him back. (Atlantic)
  • Rümeysa Öztürk: The administration has until 5 p.m. today to respond to a judge’s order that bars it from deporting a Turkish PhD student at Tufts. Her lawyers accuse the government of targeting her for her pro-Palestinian views.
  • Hitting pause: A judge blocked the administration from ending legal protections for 600,000 Venezuelans living in the US. (Politico)
  • Tariff fallout: US stocks had their worst quarter since 2022 ahead of Trump’s next round of import duties. (CNBC)

The World

  • Coupable: A French court convicted the far-right leader Marine Le Pen of embezzlement and effectively banned her from running in the next presidential election. She called the ruling political and vowed to appeal. (Le Monde)
  • Training incident: Three US soldiers are dead after their armored vehicle sank in a Lithuanian peat bog. A fourth is still missing. (NBC)
  • Earthquake toll rises: Myanmar’s civil war is making it harder for aid groups to reach affected areas. The official death toll surpassed 2,000. (AP)
  • Addressing misogyny: Netflix will make “Adolescence,” a drama set in the UK about toxic masculinity, available to stream in all UK high schools to spark discussion. (Variety)

BESIDE THE POINT

By Teresa Hanafin, Globe Staff

🧑‍🎤 No regrets: A “decision coach” has some advice: Make decisions based on who you are, not who you aspire to be. So no, don’t follow Taylor Swift into the music biz. (CNBC)

💍 The Big Day: This is the story of Peyton Wilson and Jordan Warnock, two Southerners who made Boston their home.

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🥣 Unlucky charms: If Republicans in Congress reduce food stamps, some grocery store staples could take a big hit. Think breakfast cereal, chicken nuggets, and snacks. (Quartz)

🚜 ‘I’m still bitter’: Photographer Stan Grossfeld recorded the demolition of the former PawSox stadium in Rhode Island as sad fans looked on.

🌎 Alamak! Here are some new words from countries around the world, assembled by those good folks at the Oxford English Dictionary. (OED)

🪦 Epilogue: Willard, the fuzzy-faced, rugged Scottish Highland steer who lived for 17 years at Brookline’s Allandale Farm, died on Saturday.


Thanks for reading Starting Point.

This newsletter was edited by Teresa Hanafin and produced by and Diamond Naga Siu.

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Ian Prasad Philbrick can be reached at ian.philbrick@globe.com.