Oil prices are set to post a weekly gain for the first time in three weeks, although demand concerns continue to loom as the U.S.-China trade war escalates.
Friday, April 18th, 2025
As the Western hemisphere wound down trading activity with the onset of the Easter holidays, crude oil markets have posted an impressive 7% week-on-week rise, with ICE Brent now back at $68 per barrel. New OPEC+ compensation quotas, tighter US sanctions on Iran, and relatively upbeat March macro data have all boosted sentiment in the short term, although further US-China escalation could upend this week’s recovery.
US Ratchets Up Pressure on Iran. The Trump Administration issued new sanctions to curb Iran’s oil exports, including the Shengxing Chemical teapot refinery based in Shandong province for purchasing more than $1 billion worth of Iranian crude, the second Chinese refiner to be hit with direct sanctions.
EIA Is Bleeding People After DOGE Check. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is reported to have lost more than 100 employees in the latest round of resignation offers put forward by Elon Musk’s DOGE drive, possibly losing up to 40% of the EIA’s 350 employees, putting data publications at risk.
Mauritania Exports Its First Ever Gas Cargo. UK energy major BP (NYSE:BP) has finally loaded its first LNG shipment - aboard the British Sponsor LNG carrier - from the 2.3 mtpa Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) facility offshore Mauritania, following a six-week delay to the export terminal’s commissioning.
Equinor’s US Wind Ambitions Dissipate. US Interior Secretary Doug Burgum mandated a halt to construction of the Empire Wind offshore project developed by Norway’s state oil firm Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) off the New York Coast, citing insufficient environmental analysis before approval.
BlackRock Gets Ready to Buy Up Utilities. The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission allowed US investment firm BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) to own major stakes of public utility companies, a joint 2023 motion of 16 Republican-led states decrying its ESG investing demands on utility companies.
Bahrain Resumes LNG Imports. Despite being a producer of oil and sharing a huge oil field with Saudi Arabia, the Middle Eastern kingdom of Bahrain is set to resume importing LNG after a five-year hiatus, with a 170,000 m3 cargo from the US Sabine Pass LNG facility moving towards the Arab Gulf.
Europe Has Now Only Two Russian Buyers. The Czech Republic has officially halted its imports of Russian crude after the Transalpine pipeline (TAL) from Italy’s Trieste boosted throughput capacity to 900,000 b/d, with Czech refiners now getting all of their oil needs from the seas.
Congo Taps Blackwater Know-How. Erik Prince, the founder of private military firm Blackwater, has allegedly signed an agreement with the Democratic Republic of Congo to secure the country’s vast metal reserves and reduce cross-border smuggling of commodities amidst ongoing warfare in Eastern Congo.
Trading Firms Eye Italian Refinery Sale. Global commodity traders Glencore (LON:GLEN) and Gunvor are considering buying Italy’s API downstream firm, operating two refineries in Ancona and Trecate, totalling 200,000 b/d in capacity, with Azerbaijan’s state oil firm SOCAR also keen to purchase the asset.
Force Majeure Saps Malaysia’s LNG Supply. Malaysia’s Petronas, operator of the giant 29.3 mtpa Bintulu LNG export terminal, is experiencing production issues due to boiler malfunction, setting a pricing floor for Asia’s JKM gas futures that are set to rebound from their 9-month low of $12 per mmBtu.
China Hits New Coal Record. China posted another all-time high in coal production as the March supply totals amounted to 440.6 million tonnes, up 9.6% from a year ago, worsening the country’s coal oversupply and forcing power utilities to cut their coal imports by 6% month-over-month in March.
Refiners Flee California Regulatory Hell. US refining giant Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) filed its request to ‘idle, restructure or cease’ operations at its 170,000 b/d Benicia refinery next to San Francisco by April 2026, marking the second refinery closure in California in less than a year amidst rising regulatory costs.
America’s Copper Dream Is On. Following years of stalling and controversy, the Trump administration is set to approve a land swap that would pave the way for Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) and its project partner BHP (NYSE:BHP) to launch one of the world’s largest copper mines, the Resolution Copper project in Arizona.
Ukraine Signs Watered-Down Minerals Deal. Ukrainian authorities stated that Kyiv and Washington have signed a memorandum of intent on developing mineral resources in the Eastern European country, aiming for the establishment of a Ukraine reconstruction investment fund, with a full deal expected next week.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
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Trump's signalling came after China decided that it can do far better by ending its trade with the US altogether and focus on its trade with the rest of the world leaving it to the US to seek a replacement for Russian exports at higher prices and stoke its inflation.
Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Global Energy Expert