Ukraine would benefit most now from reducing Russiaʼs oil and gas revenues and limiting its ability to produce weapons, says Yulia Pavytska. Itʼs important to do this quickly so the Russians donʼt have time to adapt. The US can greatly contribute to both.
Until now, the West has tried to reduce Russian profits from fuel exports by limiting the maximum price of oil to $60 per barrel. Russia has been able to circumvent this norm: it now controls almost 600 tankers that do not use the services of companies from the G7 countries and can sell oil for more than $60 without fear of sanctions.
Pavytska says that as a result, the volumes of oil and gas sold by Russia remain at the same level as in the conditional year 2021. In total, since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Russia has received
Measures against specific tankers have become more effective: most of the 217 ships that fell under US sanctions are now idle. So it is possible to impose sanctions on a larger number of ships or to lower the maximum permitted price of Russian oil more sharply, as Canada is currently lobbying. However, it would be even more effective to limit the amount of oil and gas that the Russians can sell.
Graham’s proposal is about exactly that. Choosing between Russian oil and gas and significantly complicating trade with the US, China and India ― the main buyers of Russian energy resources ― are unlikely to choose 500 percent US tariffs, the expert says. And this will affect the volume of sales of Russian energy resources more significantly than limiting the maximum price and arresting individual tankers.
Hereʼs what Russia sells to and buys from China. In 5 years, the volume of trade between the countries has more than doubled.
«Babel'»
Sanctions directly on energy purchases would also help to bypass the so-called refining hole, a loophole where countries bought Russian oil, processed it into petroleum products, and exported it to the West. According to the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), refineries in India and Turkey processed $6 billion worth of Russian crude oil in this way.
“Even if [due to the adoption of the Graham Act] Russia loses 10-20% of its sales, it will be a significant blow to it,” Pavytska claims.
Congress should begin consideration of the bill within a week, Graham claims. But his proposals also have opponents, in particular Republican Senator Rand Paul.
He published a column in the publication of the “anti-war” Quincy Institute (we wrote about him in a series of materials about pseudo-experts), where he calls the idea of tariffs reckless. After all, “it will lead to an economic catastrophe of unprecedented proportions” and no one will want to trade with the United States. In particular, long-time allies, because Russia supplies oil and other energy resources to European countries, as well as Japan, Israel and Taiwan.
Pavytska admits that diplomatic problems may indeed arise, Pavytska admits. On the other hand, this norm may push the European Union “to make decisions that are long overdue”. For example, to introduce duties on any energy imports from Russia, without exception for Slovakia and Hungary. But Howard is wrong about the economic catastrophe, the economist is convinced. On the contrary, by displacing the Russians from the oil and gas market, the US will be able to increase its own production and increase its share of the global market.
Ukraineʼs second goal, to limit Russiaʼs weapons production capabilities, is more difficult.
The Russiansʼ main partners in this are North Korea and Iran, which have long been under sanctions. They have learned to produce weapons in conditions of legal isolation, as well as bypass international payment systems. For example, according to a report by the Washington-based Center for Advanced Defense Studies (C4ADS), the Russians transferred 1 800 kg of gold bars
It is through China that the Russians receive most of the American electronics needed to produce precision weapons. And there is already a way to influence this. Joe Biden also signed a decree that “created the risk of secondary sanctions for all financial institutions that cooperate with sanctioned companies and the Russian defense-industrial complex in circumvention of sanctions,” says the economist. So these sanctions can only be imposed — for example, on several mediocre Chinese banks. Such a precedent will put the PRC before a choice — further assistance to Russia or safe trade with the United States.
This decision, like the fate of Lindsey Grahamʼs bill, depends on only one person — Donald Trump. In fact, this bill continues the previous policy of sanctions against Russia, "translated" into the language of duties, or "tariffs", understandable to Trump.
However, if Washington at least maintains sanctions against the Russians at the current level, this will be the most important element of non-military pressure on the Russians for Ukraine.
Lindsey Graham (right) and co-author of the bill, Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal, in Kyiv on May 30, 2025.
Getty Images / «Babel'»
Until Trump finally decides to impose sanctions on Russia, the European Union or individual European countries can put pressure on the enemy.
For example, ban their companies from providing any services related to the transportation of Russian oil — up to and including payments in euros. Pavytska says that the EU countries should also more carefully check the origin of oil and oil products entering their markets.
In addition to Europe, OPEC countries are also helping. The decision taken on May 31 to increase oil production by 411 000 barrels per day should lower world oil prices — and, accordingly, Russian incomes. This is one of the reasons why the Russians have already reduced by a quarter the expected annual budget revenues from the sale of oil and gas.