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    Oil shortfall from Iran, Venezuela may cause spike in crude prices in Q4: Fatih Birol, IEA

    Synopsis

    “There is a significant risk that the prices may go up further and affect global economy.”

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    Expensive energy is back with oil, gas and coal prices all having gone up, Fatih Birol, ED, IEA, tells ET Now. High energy price and currency challenges to have a significant impact on the global economy and on oil importing emerging countries like India, says Birol.

    Edited excerpts:


    You have made case to OPEC that oil output should be hiked as prices are now entering the red zone. How alarming is the situation right now?

    We are worried about the current oil market situation but even more about the next months to come because global oil demand growth is still strong and we expect it to remain strong for a few quarters at least.

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    On the other hand, we see two major challenges on the production side; one is the Venezuelan production is in a free fall and the Iran situation. The sanctions on Iran means that the Iranian exports will continue to decline. As a result, Q4 this year may see further upward pressure on the prices. It is a difficult time for the global economy because global economic growth momentum is slowing down, there are trade disputes between the major players and at the same time many emerging countries have currency challenges and so high oil prices are coming at a wrong time and it will have a significant impact on the global economy and on oil importing emerging countries like India.

    How damaging can high energy prices be at a time at a time when the global economy is showing signs of a slowdown?

    Oil prices are high and at the same time, natural gas prices are also high in Asia and in Europe as are coal prices in Asia, Australia and Europe. Expensive energy is back and this is not good for the economy especially for those countries that import a significant amount of energy, oil, gas and coal. and they have imported current account deficits, for example, in India the fiscal deficit increased substantially this year compared to last year and I know that the Indian government is making a lot of efforts to dampen the negative impacts of the increase in the international energy prices.

    I had an excellent discussion with Minister Pradhan. We looked at the ways we can reduce the impact of high oil prices on the Indian and other economies. I appreciate the great support of Minister Pradhan to address this issue at home and also internationally.

    What chances are there that OPEC will listen to calls for higher production from IEA? Even President Trump has tweeted about the risks from higher oil prices?

    If key producers increase production and bring new balance to the markets, this can come as a comfort the market. For example, recently Saudi Arabia increased the production to 10.7 million barrels per day but it will be very helpful if Saudi Arabia as well as others major producers increase the production to comfort the markets to address this challenge coming from the strong demand growth and loss of oil production coming from Venezuela and Iran.

    I highlighted the loss of Venezuela and Iran oil production but I know that there are many fragilities in other oil producing countries such as Libya, Nigeria and Iraq. Therefore, all the players -- consumers as well as producers -- in this very critical period, need a common sense when it comes to taking decisions.

    When can the situation be fully contained in Venezuela?

    Venezuela is one of the very important oil producing countries and Venezuelan oil production in less than two years has dropped from 2.4 million barrels per day to 1.2 million barrels per day. We have never ever seen a country’s oil production decline so much in so short a time and we expect very soon this could go below 1 million barrels per day because there is almost no activity and almost free fall of production. It is becoming more and more difficult to arrest the decline. So, Venezuela is another worry for the global oil markets for the next months to come. The general discussion is focussed on Iran but we should not forget that the Venezuela issue as well.

    Brent prices have fallen from $86 to about $80 in the last one week. Where do you see them headed by the year end?

    The prices today are above $80 and we do not see additional barrels coming from the key producers. There is a significant risk that the prices may go up further. That is a risk for the global economy and economies of the oil importing countries such as India.

    What has been the role of Russia in setting oil price trends?

    When we look at the countries around the world, we see some of the countries increasing production and here I should thank Saudi Arabia making some efforts. We know that other countries such as Russia and Emirates are also increasing production and altogether there is some increase in output but it is not good enough to meet the gap coming from the strong demand growth and loss of a significant amount of oil from Venezuela and Iran.





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    (What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips and expert advice, on ETMarkets. Also, ETMarkets.com is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .)

    Download The Economic Times News App to get Daily Market Updates & Live Business News.

    Subscribe to The Economic Times Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Online.and Sensex Today.

    Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price, Axis Bank Share Price, HDFC Bank Share Price, Infosys Share Price, Wipro Share Price, NTPC Share Price

    ...more
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